The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

“Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country.”

According to the author, Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds. Hence, it should buy Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods. The author has drawn this conclusion on the basis of certain facts like Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. However, there are several fallacies in the argument and it is certainly not convincing.

First of all, the author has mentioned about the profits of Mesa foods in the last year. He has not talked about the previous years. It is possible that Mesa Foods did not earn much profit in those years. Hence, it is difficult to judge the trend of business for Mesa. In addition, there is no evidence to show that sales will keep on growing. There is no evidence to show long-term performance of Mesa Foods and its ability to maintain good momentum. Moreover, the arguer writes that the products of Mesa are sold only in a relatively small region of the country. Hence, the customer base of Mesa may be relatively small too and after a certain increase in the sales, growth might stop or decline.

Secondly, the increased sales of the best-selling product of Mesa, Diabolique Salsa, do not mean Mesa Foods has development potential for granted. It cannot be ruled out that it is just because Diabolique Salsa caters to the local taste that it has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Hence, whether Diabolique Salsa will be welcome in other regions or not is doubtful. It is unfair on the author’s part to assume that the other place of nation would like the Mesa Foods as well. There is no firm evidence to make us believe that Mesa Foods has great development potential. Unless the author can provide evidence that the best-selling product Diabolique Salsa is the best profits product, he cannot draw a conclusion from that.

Finally, according to the author, the target customer base of Omni Inc. is the youth in the age group of 14-25 years. The author has assumed that just stepping in the snack food business would make Omni Inc achieve its target customers without providing any ground evidence to support. This point is just an assumption that this age group people usually consume all snacks. However, there is no such data that shows that this age group people are the customers of Mesa Foods. We cannot rule out the possibility that the main customers of Mesa is beyond the age group of 14-to-25 years old. Thus, the author should provide an accurate study on Mesa’s customers to show that buying Mesa really will benefit Omni Inc’s interests.

Hence, the argument seems groundless and unconvincing. The arguer should have provided sufficient evidence to strengthen his recommendation that Mesa Foods has strong growth potential. The author of the argument should provide sufficient survey to prove that the people of other places of the nation would like to eat Mesa Foods as well.