The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.”

In this argument, the author claims that the new jazz club, C Note will do great business in Monroe, as there is no jazz club within an area of 65 miles and people of Monroe are fond of jazz music. He has cited a lot of evidence in his support. To support his point of view, the arguer has pointed out that the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is “Jazz Nightly”. He has also talked about a nationwide survey to show that a typical jazz fan spends nearly $1000 per year on jazz entertainment. The reasons given by the author seem sound and reasonable at first glance, however, there are several logical flaws in the argument that undermine the arguer’s conclusion.

Firstly, the author assumes that because the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, his proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. However, he has not thought about the reason why there is not any other jazz club in that area. There are chances that someone might have opened a jazz club before, but closed because it had few customers and he could not earn money. He also failed to establish the relationship between the nearest jazz club being 65 miles away and C Note dominating the local market. The club 65 miles away might be having much better service and a low-ticket price. Moreover, that club might have a high reputation and fixed customers, who probably will drive at least 65 miles to enjoy the specific service he or she likes most. Hence, this evidence does not prove that C Note will necessarily dominate the local market.

Secondly, the author made a hasty generalization. He simply equated the fact that because over 100000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival and the high-rated radio program is “Jazz Nightly”, C Note will automatically make lots of money. The author has nowhere mentioned the proportion of the native people who attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer. There is a possibility that there were more tourists who attended the festival. There are chances that the people’s salary in Monroe is low, thus, people probably do not have money to spend in the jazz club. Even if they like jazz music, they prefer listening to the radio rather than going to a jazz club. Hence, these reasons do not guarantee the success of C Note in Monroe.

The reason that many well known jazz musicians live in Monroe also does not hold any ground. It does not establish any relationship with the success of C Note. They could be living in Monroe because of its good living conditions.

Finally, the author supported his argument with a nationwide study that indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per years on jazz entertainment. However, if a jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment it does not mean that he will spend money on going to a jazz club. He may buys jazz CD, DVD, and to see live jazz play.

Hence, the argument lacks thorough analysis and reliable statistic. The author should have investigated the actual number of people going to the jazz club. It would have strengthened his argument.