The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

“Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country’s balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it.”

In his memo, the economic minister of Paucia suggests that their farmers should be encouraged to cultivate a new variety of rice rather than other traditional crops. He says that the farmers in Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any other year by cultivating the new variety of seed. Hence, by exporting the surplus, Paucia would be able to improve its balance of trade. However, the suggestion of the economic minister is not supported with logic and reasoning since there are many more things that can affect the yield of a crop. There is no proof given in his argument that Paucia will surely be able to improve their balance of trade by cultivating rice instead of their traditional crops.

To begin with, the writer affirms that a new variety of seed has helped in 80 percent increase in rice production last year than in previous years in the country of Abundia. However, the increase in production can be attributed to other factors as well. For example, it is possible that in the previous years Abundia had faced unfavorable weather, which resulted in famine. There could be more land brought under cultivation than previous years that has seen an increase in production. Moreover, it is likely that the farmers have used better pesticides and fertilizers that have increased their yield. It cannot be said for sure that the increase in production of rice has been only due to the new variety of seeds. Therefore, the minister should not rely on superficial facts, but must study the actual cause of increase in production.

Considering that the production of rice increased in Abundia due to the new variety of seeds used by farmers, does not indicate that the same will be true for Paucia as well. Even if Abundia is a neighboring county, there could be a great difference in the soil of the two countries. While the soil of Abundia could be fertile and favorable for rice production, it is possible that the soil of Paucia is only suitable for traditional crops. In that case, if the new variety of seeds of rice is grown in Paucia, it would not result in increased production since the land is not suitable for production of rice. Moreover, there could be a great difference in the climate of both places. It is likely that the weather of Paucia is not suitable for rice production. Hence, even if an improved variety of seeds of rice were used by farmers, it would not result in a high yield.

As discussed earlier, it is not only the variety of seeds that helps in increasing production. It is likely that the condition of farmers in Paucia is very poor and they cannot introduce new technique in cultivating their fields. Therefore, in order to increase the production of crops in Paucia, the farmers should be given good fertilizers and pesticides. They should be provided with good means of irrigation as well as modern techniques to plough their land. With such changes, the production of traditional crops can see a manifold increase. Therefore, Paucia need not depend upon a new variety of seeds to increase their production of crops and improve their balance of trade, but can do so with increase in the production of their traditional crops as well.

It is evident that the economic minister ignores all the above-mentioned factors responsible for the yield of a crop. He must, therefore, alter his argument by using logic and reasoning so that his argument is more convincing and sensible.